"The data we release today consolidates the record production estimate in Brazilian history: there are 322.8 million tons of grains, which represents an increase of 50.1 million tons of grains more than in the last harvest", he states the president of Conab, Edegar Pretto.
“In the first data released by Conab, the harvest forecast was 312.4 million tons, and we ended the cycle with 322.8 million tons. A difference of 3.3% or just over 10 million tons. This shows the methodological advancement of Conab, which is responsible for public data", he highlights.
This season, soybeans showed productivity recovery in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina. In Rio Grande do Sul, there was also an improvement in crop performance, although limited due to unfavorable weather conditions during the development of the oilseed. “This season, the effects of La Niña were concentrated in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, but still on a smaller scale than in the previous cycle. In the other states, the climate was quite favorable, even with some delays during the sowing and harvesting period”, analyzes the Crop Monitoring Manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos. Given the favorable scenario, soybean production in the country in the 2022/23 harvest is a new record, estimated at 154.6 million tons, growth of 23.2%.
Corn is also expected to have the largest harvest ever recorded in the historical series. In the sum of the 3 cereal harvests, production should reach 131.9 million tons, an increase of 18.7 million tons on that obtained in the previous cycle. In the first grain harvest, production totaled 27.4 million tons, while for the second harvest, the forecast points to a volume of 102.2 million tons. According to the Harvest Progress, released this week by the Company, around 89% of the sown area had already been harvested. For the third harvest, estimated production is 2.33 million tons. “However, the reduction in rainfall that occurred in July and August restricted the productive potential in a large part of the producing regions”, ponders Vasconcellos.
Important products for the Brazilian table, rice and beans present different scenarios. In the case of both products, there was a reduction in planting area due to competition with other crops that were more profitable at the time. However, for rice, the improvement in productivity was not enough to compensate for the smaller area resulting in a drop in production of 6.9%, reaching 10 million tons. As for legumes, the good performance of the crops ensures a total harvest of 3.04 million tons, 1.7% above the result of the previous harvest.
Among winter crops, an increase of 11.8% in the area cultivated with wheat in the country was confirmed, standing at 3.45 million hectares and an estimated production of 10.82 million tons, 2.5% above of that obtained in the previous harvest.
Market – The good results of the Brazilian harvest place Brazil as the main exporter of soybeans and corn in the 2022/23 harvest. For the oilseed, the export volume is expected to reach 96.95 million tons of grain. As for cereal, the Company's estimate points to shipments of around 50 million tons, surpassing North American exports. The good scenario for sales to the international market is also seen for soybean meal and oil, with exports estimated at 21.82 million tons and 2.6 million tons respectively.
For cotton, the record production of lint allows a recovery in final stocks of around 59%, reaching 2.1 thousand tons. Exports could reach 1.7 million tons this harvest. According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), in August 2023, 104.3 thousand tons of cotton were exported, the second best performance for the month in the historical series, exceeding by 66.1% the same period last year.
Complete data on the 12th Survey of the 2022/23 Grain Harvest and the market conditions for these products can be found on the Conab Portal. Other information about the effects of climate on crops is regularly available in editions of the Conab Agricultural Monitoring Bulletin.
Source: Conab
