The Brazilian soybean harvest 2023/24 could reach 156.7 million tons, which corresponds to an increase of around 2.4%, or 3.7 million tons, compared to the previous season 2022/23. The assessment is from the intelligence and consultancy team at Biond Agro, a Brazilian grain management and marketing company.

The climate remains the main villain for Brazilian agriculture, according to the company. Especially in the Central-West, the drought index continues to worsen and reach higher than historical values. In Mato Grosso, for example, the regions of Sinop, Sorriso, Alto Araguaia and Campo Novo do Parecis are experiencing severe or extreme drought, Biond reported.

“Our data indicates a harvest of 156.7 million tons of soybeans for the month of December, this number has already been revised downwards on two occasions”, said Felipe Jordy, intelligence and consultancy coordinator at Biond Agro.

In the case of corn, the situation is more complex to predict, the company considered. The main reference crop in the crop is safrinha corn, which is planted shortly after the soybean harvest, however, expectations also suggest that the crop may have problems with the weather in its productive window, causing cuts in its estimate.

The global scenario for 2024 is one of restoring product stocks. It is possible to predict good recoveries in the supply of the Argentine region, going from a harvest of 25 million tons, to a production of around 50 million tons of soybeans, with corn in the same situation.